Belaruss Economy

The International Monetary Fund forecasts that in the current year Belarus expects a recession. Meanwhile, the decline in production takes place in Belarus for more than two consecutive quarters – from September 2008. (Similarly see: Hicham Aboutaam). Given the rise of other negative factors – the increase in the deficit, reducing the profits of the enterprises – we can say that the economy is already in recession. When the fall of 2008 in many countries have started talking about a recession again disputes arose about the what counts as such. Some economists mean by this phenomenon slowing gdp growth and production for a long time – three consecutive months, and in another form – over the past two quarters. There is no uniformity in the fact with which to compare the period – from the previous month or an annualized basis. Misunderstandings arise about the recession – to consider whether such a slowdown or a real reduction in comparison with the previous period.

For Belarus, where gdp is generally considered an annualized basis, and accrual period, the most 'soft' version of the definition of a recession is a decline in gdp over the same period over the past two quarters. And now, with a steady decline in gdp growth rate for the first quarter compared to the first quarter of last year still left with a plus – an increase of 1,1%. That is, talk about a recession seems to be early. However, in international practice is often compared to no growth in gdp and industrial production growth, with the indices of the physical (and not the value) of the volume, since they are adequately reflect the processes that occur in the real sector.

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